Abstract: Scenarios are among the most popular techniques for managing the uncertainty and complexity of the future. Even the more sophisticated scenario designs, however, often reduce the future to a narrow set of typically only two key factors that are arranged into a four-square matrix representing four distinct yet interrelated scenarios. Consequently, scenarios have been criticised for being simplistic or reductionist by design. In this article, we address these criticisms by proposing a basic design for n-factorial scenarios. Following a short discussion of the procedures and limitations of classical scenario design, we draw on the example of a standard 2 × 2 matrix titled ‘Four Scenarios for the Digital Transformation’ to illustrate the limitations of the standard approach and demonstrate the potential of a digital approach to scenario building. We conclude that standard scenario planning is often characterised by a systematic omission of potentially critical scenarios, which our proposed digital approach can detect and map out.

Keywords: complexity, digital transformation, null scenarios, scenario drafting, true distinctions.

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Suggested citation: Roth S., Kiskiene A., Gaizauskiene D., and Kaivo-oja J. (2025), N-factorial scenarios. A systems-theoretical approach to scenario-planning, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Vol. 42 No. 2, pp. 545-552 [SSCI 1.80, Scopus, CABS**].