Release | COVID-19. Scenarios of a superfluous crisis

Abstract: This article highlights the critical role case fatality rates (CFR) have played in the emergence and the management of particularly the early phases of the current coronavirus crisis. The article presents a contrastive map of CFR for the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza (H1N1 and H2N2). The mapped data shows that current CFR of SARS-CoV-2 are considerably lower than, or similar to those, of hospitalized patients in the UK, Spain, Germany, or international samples. We therefore infer a possible risk that the virulence of the coronavirus is considerably overestimated due to sampling biases, and that increased testing might reduce the general CFR of SARS-CoV-2 to rates similar to, or lower than, of the common seasonal influenza. We conclude that governments, health corporations, and health researchers must prepare for scenarios in which the affected populations cease to believe in the statistical foundations of the current coronavirus crisis and interventions.

Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; influenza; case fatality rates; scenarios.

Suggested citation: Roth S., Clausen L., and Möller S. (in press), COVID-19. Scenarios of a superfluous crisis, Kybernetes, DOI: 10.1108/K-05-2020-0280 [SCI 1.754, Scopus, ABS*].

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