Virtual Special Issue of Futures on

Simulation and dissimulation

Edited by Steffen Roth, Jari Kaivo-oja, Kristof van Assche, and Harry F. Dahms

Introduction

Steffen Roth, Jari Kaivo-oja, Kristof van Assche, and Harry F. Dahms: Expressions of untruth, suppressions of truth. A 21st century reintroduction to “Simulation and Dissimulation”

Abstract: In this article, we explore the paradoxical relationship between simulation and dissimulation. We draw on nine contributions to an eponymous virtual special issue of Futures to emphasise that overreliance on simulations or their confusion with research methods is associated with the risk of abetting academic or political dissimulation or immunization strategies that escape conventional forms of control or scrutiny. Next, we contend that simulations are mostly forms of knowledge engineering for purposes other than science, before concluding that experiences with simulations and simulation-based policies during the coronavirus crisis might have undermined the higher goals of environmental research, policies, and movements.

Contributions

Johanna Jauernig, Matthias Uhl, and Vladislav Valentinov: The ethics of corporate hypocrisy: An experimental approach

Abstract: In the current landscape of management and business ethics scholarship, a prominent type of dissimulation is exemplified by corporate hypocrisy. The concept of corporate hypocrisy brings traditional morality to bear on the institutions of the modern society and thereby emphasizes the contested relationship between the research programs of individual and institutional ethics. Assuming that morality in the modern society resides in institutions rather than individuals, institutional ethics emphasizes limits to the ability of traditional morality to come to terms with the moral complexity of the market economy. The case of corporate hypocrisy shows however that traditional morality nurtures individual sensitivity to immoral behaviors which may undermine the modern institutional fabric theorized by institutional ethics. This argument is supported by our central experimental finding that the moral evaluation of individual and corporate hypocrisy is driven by essentially the same psychological mechanisms. Moreover, the experiment showed that both corporate and individual hypocrisy are condemned stronger than frankly wrong behavior even if their consequences are identical.

Christof Kuhbandner, Stefan Homburg, Harald Walach, and Stefan Hockertz: Was Germany’s Lockdown in Spring 2020 Necessary? How Bad Data Quality Can Turn a Simulation Into a Delusion that Shapes the Future

During the spread of SARS-Cov-2, Germany imposed various restrictions, including the closure of schools on March 16 2020, and an extensive lockdown on March 23 2020. In this paper, we show how the influential simulation of the purported beneficial effects of this lockdown in Germany was based on wrong data, but nevertheless played a decisive role in shaping the future by allegedly producing evidence for the effectiveness of these measures, lending scientific credibility to policies. We point out that the evaluation of the success of such policies depends critically on data quality. Using publicly reported confirmed cases for the calculation of time series statistics is apt to produce misleading results because these data come with unknown variable time lags. Using data on incident cases, i.e., dates of the onset of symptoms, produces results that are much more reliable. Using this method demonstrates that previous analyses stating that the mitigation strategies of the German government were necessary and effective are indeed flawed. This in turn shows that model simulations and dissimulations are very close neighbors.

Michael Esfeld: From the open society to the closed society: Reconsidering Popper on natural and social science

Abstract: The paper points out the relevance of Popper’s seminal work on The open society and its enemies for the current situation of the handling of the corona crisis. It shows how studies that were employed to justify coercive policies committed two well-known mistakes that were pointed out notably by Popper: (i) they promoted as actual predictions model simulations that set initial parameters in such a way that pessimistic outcomes are produced; (ii) they applied methods of natural science to social science without paying heed to the fact that humans spontaneously adapt their behaviour to new information they receive. The paper then argues, following Popper, that there is no knowledge that enables social engineering with the aim of realising one particular value such as health protection. The paper concludes with a suggestion how to deal with negative externalities that is based on human freedom.

Stefano Armenia, Steven Arquitt, Matteo Pedercini, and Alessandro Pompei: Anticipating human resilience and vulnerability on the path to 2030: What can we learn from COVID-19?

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented damage to our society and economy, globally impacting progress towards the SDGs. The integrated perspective that Agenda 2030 calls for is ever more important for understanding the vulnerability of our eco-socio-economic systems and for designing policies for enhanced resilience. Since the emergence of COVID-19, countries and international institutions have strengthened their monitoring systems to produce timely data on infections, fostering data-driven decision-making often without the support of systemic-based simulation models. Evidence from the initial phases of the pandemic indicates that countries that were able to implement effective policies before the number of cases grew large (e.g. Australia) managed to contain COVID-19 to a much greater extent than others. We argue that prior systemic knowledge of a phenomenon provides the essential information to correctly interpret data, develop a better understanding of the emerging behavioural patterns and potentially develop early qualitative awareness of how to react promptly in the early phases of destructive phenomena, eventually providing the ground for building more effective simulation models capable of better anticipating the effects of policies. This is even more important as, on its path to 2030, humanity will face other challenges of similar dynamic nature. Chief among these is Climate Change. In this paper, we show how a Systems Thinking and System Dynamics modelling approach is useful for developing a better understanding of these and other issues, and how systemic lessons learned from the COVID-19 case can help decision makers anticipate the destructive dynamics of Climate Change by improving perceptions of the potential impacts of reinforcing feedback and delays, ultimately leading to more timely interventions to achieve the SDGs and mitigate Climate Change risks.

Vanessa Dirksen, Martin Neumann, and Ulf Lotzmann: From agent to action: The use of ethnographic social simulation for crime research

Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology for grounding agent-based social simulation in ethnographic data, using the example of crime research. The application of computational tools in crime research typically entails a removal of the “intelligible frame” of criminal behaviour and, hence, of meaningful evidence. Ethnography is a microscopic research tradition geared towards the preservation of contextualized meaning deemed essential for the exploration of the variety of prospective alternative scenarios and, hence, of plausible futures. On the basis of exemplary empirical material from a qualitative study on the transit trade of cocaine in the Netherlands, this paper looks into the complementarity and potential integration of the research traditions of ethnography and agent-based modelling. That is to say, it explores the compatibility of the formal languages of both these domains and the mutual benefit of “stitching together” these at first sight very different methods. The ethnographic approach to social simulation specifies the what-if relations of traditional/conventional ABM modelling into condition-action sequences. As we contend, it is exactly this more microscopic level of condition-action sequences that is needed to facilitate ”thick description” and, in turn, enable the grounding of ABM in meaningful evidence.

Christian Dayé: On the icy slopes of expertise: How a Cold War-era solution to the problem of expert opinion in science might transform the epistemology of simulation

Abstract: This article identifies two major sources of epistemological uncertainty in simulation, the problem of representation—how similar is the model to reality?—and the problem of expert opinions—what status can be ascribed to expert opinions? In the late 1950s, philosophers Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher proposed an epistemology that purportedly provided the foundation for understanding simulation and comparable predictive endeavors as scientific. Published in 1959 as “On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences,” it claimed that under certain provisions, expert opinions should be acknowledged on the same epistemological level as theories or data. Doing so would solve the problem of expert opinion. While this proposal was innovative and soundly argued, it was not much received. Yet, within futures studies, it contributed to the development of an epistemological position, and eventually a new concept of science, that acknowledge and integrate the uncertainty implied in any predictive science. This article argues that it is worthwhile to reconsider Helmer and Rescher’s proposal and the ensuing debates about the nature of science in futures studies, as they provide a strategic position from which to re-conceptualize the use of expert opinions in simulation studies and thus to establish a more adequate epistemology for simulation in other fields of science.

Bernhard Gill, Theresa Kehler, and Michael Schneider: Is Covid-19 a dread risk? The death toll of the pandemic year 2020 in long-term and transnational perspective

Abstract: “Dread risks” are threats that can have catastrophic consequences. To analyse this issue we use excess mortality and corresponding life years lost as simple measures of the severity of pandemic events. As such, they are more robust than figures from models and testing procedures that usually inform public responses. We analyse data from OECD countries that are already fully available for the whole of 2020. To assess the severity of the pandemic, we compare with historical demographic events since 1880. Results show that reports of high excess mortality during peak periods and local outbreaks should not be taken as representative. Six countries saw a somewhat more increased percentage of life years lost (over 7%), nine countries show mild figures (0–7%), while seven countries had life year gains of up to 7%. So, by historical standards, Covid-19 is worse than regular flu, but a far cry from the Spanish Flu, which has become the predominant frame of reference for the current pandemic. Even though the demographic impact is modest, psychological aspects of the pandemic can still lead to transformative futures, as the reactions of East Asian societies to SARS I in 2003 showed.

Kristof Van Assche, Gert Verschraegen, Raoul Beunen, Monica Gruezmacher, and Martijn Duineveld: Combining research methods in policy and governance: taking account of bricolage and discerning limits of modelling and simulation

Abstract: We present a perspective on combining research methods in policy and governance which starts from an understanding of governance as the result of a double bricolage: an organizational or institutional bricolage, and a bricolage of knowledges and associated methods. We develop a typology of common ways to combine methods in governance, distinguishing between nesting, framing, mixing, specifying, and specializing, where not all methods can be combined at all times and sometimes different modes of combining methods can coexist. We reflect on the possibilities and limits of combination and give the concepts of boundaries and couplings central place in this reflection. The perspective clarifies the attractiveness of integrated systems of quantitative methods purporting to enable simulation and steering, while highlighting a new set of risks and boundaries for such approaches.

J. Gareth Polhill and Bruce Edmonds: Cognition and hypocognition: Discursive and simulation-supported decision-making within complex systems

Abstract: Homo sapiens is currently believed to have evolved in the African savannah several hundreds of thousands of years ago. Since then, human societies have become, through technological innovation and application, powerful influencers of the planet’s ecological, hydrological and meteorological systems – for good and ill. They have experimented with many different systems of governance, in order to manage their societies and the environments they inhabit – using computer simulations as a tool to help make decisions concerning highly complex systems, is only the most recent of these. In questioning whether, when and how computer simulations should play a role in determining decision-making in these systems of governance, it is also worth reflecting on whether, when and how humans, or groups of humans, have the capability to make such decisions without the aid of such technology. This paper looks at and compares the characteristics of natural language-based and simulation-based decision-making. We argue that computational tools for decision-making can and should be complementary to natural language discourse approaches, but that this requires that both systems are used with their limitations in mind. All tools and approaches – physical, social and mental – have dangers when used inappropriately, but it seems unlikely humankind can survive without them. The challenge is how to do so.